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A publication of Mecox Bay Research

Market notes

Plain-English notes, when they matter.

Between the weekly signal readouts, John writes longer notes — when a week is worth explaining, when the data says something unusual, or when a piece of market history is worth revisiting.

Market Note July 6, 2026 New

How Pricey Is This Market, Really?

A valuation check-up: CAPE near 40, the Buffett indicator near 235 percent, GMO forecasting negative real returns — and why a little insurance can be worth a small yearly cost.
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Week in Review July 2026 New

A Positive Week, and What Sits Behind It

The week of June 26 to July 2 the strategy gained about 0.66 percent, mostly invested with nine of eleven sectors in the market — a look at what a defensive, absolute-return strategy is really built to do.
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Market Note June 2026 New

A Standout Week for the Strategy

The week of June 22–26 the strategy beat a 60/40 balanced fund by roughly 2.7 points — a one-in-seventy result. And for once it was offense, not defense, that did it.
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Market Note June 2026 New

Halfway Through 2026: The Strategy Mirrors a Balanced Fund, But Keeps the Upside

The strategy is up 5.3% at the halfway mark, narrowly ahead of a 60/40 fund's 5.2% — with a shallower drawdown and not a single day in the red.
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