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A publication of Mecox Bay Research

Market notes

Plain-English notes, when they matter.

Between the weekly signal readouts, John writes longer notes, when a week is worth explaining, when the data says something unusual, or when a piece of market history is worth revisiting.

Market Note August 25, 2026 New

Where the Exits Are

A map of every sell and buy point from one day’s close. We hold nine of eleven sectors at 82 percent invested, the market has to fall about 2 percent before anything is sold and about 14 percent before we are all the way out, and a steady slide from here costs us about 7 percent against the index’s 14.
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Market Note August 14, 2026 New

The Lost Decade, and How Our Strategy Navigated

The Times pointed out you’d have been better off with no stocks at all from Dec. 31, 1999 to March 9, 2009. Run through our rules over the full decade, the strategy grew $10,000 to $13,853, versus the S&P 500’s $9,037, with a worst drop of −21.5% against the market’s −55.2%.
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Week in Review July 20–24, 2026 New

A Good Week

The strategy returned +0.95% this week, a top-fifth result against its own history back to 2000, before any benchmark comparison even enters the picture.
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Market Note July 6, 2026 New

How Pricey Is This Market, Really?

A valuation check-up: CAPE near 40, the Buffett indicator near 235 percent, GMO forecasting negative real returns and why a little insurance can be worth a small yearly cost.
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Week in Review July 2026 New

A Positive Week, and What Sits Behind It

The week of June 26 to July 2 the strategy gained about 0.66 percent, mostly invested with nine of eleven sectors in the market, a look at what a defensive, absolute-return strategy is really built to do.
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Market Note June 2026 New

A Standout Week for the Strategy

The week of June 22–26 the strategy beat a 60/40 balanced fund by roughly 2.7 points, a one-in-seventy result. And for once it was offense, not defense, that did it.
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Market Note June 2026 New

Halfway Through 2026: A Steadier Ride Than a Balanced Fund

The strategy is up 5.5% at the halfway mark against a 60/40 fund's 6.9%, with a shallower drawdown and not a single day in the red.
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