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A publication of Mecox Bay Research

Twice this century, the market has fallen by half.

For investors protecting a lifetime of savings: one published rule for when to own the market and when to wait in cash.

An Absolute Return Strategy • Rules-Based • Sector-Level
See How the Rule Works Quick Pick · Sector Monitor

General market commentary and educational content only. Not personalised investment advice. Not registered as an investment adviser.

11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs
200-Day Moving Average Signal
Rules Published & Never Changed
Same-Day Signal Alerts

How it works

“Equal weighting decides how to spread risk. The 200-day rule decides whether to take the risk at all.”

01 · Equal weight

All 11 sectors, 9.09% each. No sector quietly becomes the whole portfolio.
02 · The 200-day rule

Own a sector in an uptrend. Step to cash, earning T-bill interest, when the trend breaks.

The record

Five years at a time.

The strategy's total return for each five-year stretch since 2000, plus the 2026 year-to-date bar
Same rules, five-year totals. Click to enlarge.

The record

Absolute return, year by year.

The strategy's return for every calendar year from 2000 through 2026 year-to-date, with the whole-period average of about 6% a year
Every year of the published rules since 2000, judged on its own terms. Click to enlarge.

The evidence

Tested against every major crash since 1929.

2008
Market −55%
Strategy −15%
2000
Market −48%
Strategy −21%
1929
Market −84%
Strategy −32%
How the strategy protected capital in the 2008 financial crisis, XLF sold July 2007, in cash for two years, bought back July 2009
2008, one sector up close: out in July 2007, back in for the recovery. Seven crashes, seven studies →

The Sector Monitor: 9 of 11 sectors invested.

As of the close, July 9, 2026.

XLK XLF XLV XLY XLI XLP XLE XLU XLB XLRE XLC

This is the product: know your position every day, and get a same-day alert when it changes. →

Who stands behind it

Michele runs the business. John runs the numbers.

Meet Michele & John →

One plan. Everything included. $35 a month.

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